Fri Oct 9 · 2026-27
PIT2FINAL SO
3CBJ
PIT 33%DESERVE TO WIN67% CBJ
DESERVED
CBJ earned it — a 67% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
PITCBJ
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| PIT | CBJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 3 |
| xG (all) | 2.94 | 5.13 |
| xG (5v5) | 2.22 | 3.38 |
| Shot attempts | 49 | 83 |
| Shots on goal | 22 | 45 |
PIT skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Rust | 18.4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.42 | -1.00 |
| Evgeni Malkin | 17.5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.29 | -0.17 |
| Erik Karlsson | 24.8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | +0.27 |
| Samuel Girard | 19.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | -0.31 |
| Ben Kindel | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.53 | +0.16 |
| Sidney Crosby | 19.7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.49 | -1.07 |
| Blake Lizotte | 13.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.26 | +0.12 |
| Nick Robertson | 10.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | +0.05 |
| Tommy Novak | 14.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | -0.14 |
| Hendrix Lapierre | 12.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | -0.18 |
| Rickard Rakell | 20.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | -0.84 |
| Egor Chinakhov | 14.6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.08 | -0.40 |
| Kris Letang | 19.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | -1.18 |
| Declan Carlile | 20.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.40 |
| Kaedan Korczak | 19.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.69 |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk | 19.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.92 |
| Connor Dewar | 13.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.03 |
| Ville Koivunen | 13.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.06 |
CBJ skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Severson | 22.3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.22 | +1.14 |
| Cole Sillinger | 16.7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | +0.81 |
| Mathieu Olivier | 16.6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.45 | +0.82 |
| Zach Werenski | 29.6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.41 | +0.63 |
| Charlie Coyle | 23.5 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1.22 | +0.69 |
| Dmitri Voronkov | 12.7 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.52 | +0.10 |
| Matthew Knies | 20.6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.44 | +0.07 |
| Adam Fantilli | 21.9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.37 | +0.25 |
| Kent Johnson | 18.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.35 | -0.06 |
| Sean Monahan | 16.2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.32 | +0.39 |
| Danton Heinen | 12.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.22 | +0.01 |
| Ryan Lomberg | 9.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | -0.08 |
| Valeri Nichushkin | 16.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | +0.45 |
| Denton Mateychuk | 23.5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.09 | +0.64 |
| Erik Gudbranson | 16.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | +0.09 |
| Emil Andrae | 7.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.09 |
| Carson Soucy | 17.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.10 |
| Conor Garland | 9.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.05 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot | CBJ | 35 | 2 | 2.94 | +0.94 |
| Sergei Murashov | PIT | 62 | 2 | 5.13 | +3.13 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.