Thu Oct 8 · 2026-27
TOR3FINAL SO
4VGK
TOR 30%DESERVE TO WIN70% VGK
DESERVED
VGK earned it — a 70% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
TORVGK
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| TOR | VGK | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 4 |
| xG (all) | 2.39 | 4.91 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.32 | 2.84 |
| Shot attempts | 54 | 83 |
| Shots on goal | 24 | 43 |
TOR skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Marchenko | 18.3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.35 | -0.52 |
| Nick Paul | 17.1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.33 | -0.09 |
| Easton Cowan | 14.0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.32 | -0.47 |
| Jack Roslovic | 17.5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.31 | -0.87 |
| Auston Matthews | 21.5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | -0.80 |
| Gavin McKenna | 14.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | +0.16 |
| Darren Raddysh | 24.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | -0.96 |
| Chris Tanev | 22.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.78 |
| William Nylander | 20.5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.43 | -0.92 |
| John Tavares | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.23 | -0.65 |
| Morgan Rielly | 20.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | -0.82 |
| Jake McCabe | 23.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | -0.45 |
| Troy Stecher | 16.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.08 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.11 |
| Colton Sissons | 15.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.07 |
| Brandon Duhaime | 12.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.23 |
| Teddy Blueger | 11.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.01 |
| Bo Groulx | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.26 |
VGK skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel | 26.6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0.58 | +1.42 |
| Mark Stone | 23.9 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.81 | +0.98 |
| Mitch Marner | 24.2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.48 | +0.49 |
| Brett Howden | 15.3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.46 | +0.31 |
| Ivan Barbashev | 18.6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.25 | +1.18 |
| William Karlsson | 18.9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | +0.45 |
| Tomas Hertl | 14.7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.80 | -0.15 |
| Trevor Connelly | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.65 | +0.10 |
| Marc Gatcomb | 10.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.22 | +0.12 |
| Rasmus Andersson | 18.7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.21 | +0.11 |
| Parker Wotherspoon | 17.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | +0.41 |
| Shea Theodore | 20.8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.13 | +0.73 |
| Brayden McNabb | 18.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | +0.42 |
| Noah Hanifin | 21.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.86 |
| Jeremy Lauzon | 16.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.04 | +0.26 |
| Braeden Bowman | 13.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.25 |
| Nic Dowd | 11.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.06 |
| Raphael Lavoie | 8.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.26 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | TOR | 63 | 2 | 4.91 | +2.91 |
| Adin Hill | VGK | 36 | 3 | 2.39 | -0.61 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.