Thu Oct 8 · 2026-27
SJS3FINAL OT
2STL
SJS 36%DESERVE TO WIN64% STL
STOLE IT
SJS stole it — only a 36% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
SJSSTL
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| SJS | STL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 2 |
| xG (all) | 2.49 | 4.01 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.82 | 3.28 |
| Shot attempts | 51 | 56 |
| Shots on goal | 27 | 26 |
SJS skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Toffoli | 15.8 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.49 | +0.06 |
| Collin Graf | 14.3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.50 | -0.14 |
| Ivar Stenberg | 17.4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.23 | -0.21 |
| Alexander Wennberg | 20.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | -0.22 |
| Darnell Nurse | 22.6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | -0.24 |
| Jacob Trouba | 23.7 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.12 | -0.51 |
| Sam Dickinson | 15.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.52 |
| Michael Misa | 15.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.19 |
| Will Smith | 15.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.32 | -0.97 |
| Mason Marchment | 18.1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.17 | -0.78 |
| Zack Ostapchuk | 12.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | -0.45 |
| Luca Cagnoni | 16.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | -0.51 |
| Ty Dellandrea | 12.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | -0.26 |
| Michael Kesselring | 16.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.04 | -0.44 |
| Kiefer Sherwood | 17.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.07 |
| Dmitry Orlov | 18.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.89 |
| Igor Chernyshov | 15.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.98 |
| Barclay Goodrow | 10.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.32 |
STL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason McTavish | 14.5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1.19 | +0.54 |
| Dillon Dube | 11.1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| Connor McMichael | 16.1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | +0.14 |
| Jonatan Berggren | 12.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.31 |
| Jimmy Snuggerud | 17.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.76 | +1.10 |
| Robert Thomas | 20.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.55 | +0.87 |
| Dalibor Dvorsky | 14.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.28 | +0.24 |
| Dylan Holloway | 17.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.22 | +1.16 |
| Justin Barron | 14.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | +0.36 |
| Jake Neighbours | 14.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | +0.15 |
| Philip Broberg | 24.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | +0.50 |
| Ross Johnston | 8.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | +0.04 |
| Pius Suter | 11.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | -0.00 |
| Adam Jiricek | 14.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.77 |
| Pavel Buchnevich | 19.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | +0.01 |
| Brandon Carlo | 18.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | +0.80 |
| Colton Parayko | 23.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.23 |
| Cam Fowler | 22.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.70 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic | SJS | 40 | 2 | 4.01 | +2.01 |
| Joel Hofer | STL | 38 | 3 | 2.49 | -0.51 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.