Thu Oct 8 · 2026-27
MIN2FINAL
3TBL
MIN 44%DESERVE TO WIN56% TBL
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — TBL had a 56% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
MINTBL
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| MIN | TBL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 3 |
| xG (all) | 3.02 | 3.50 |
| xG (5v5) | 2.09 | 2.67 |
| Shot attempts | 62 | 70 |
| Shots on goal | 36 | 35 |
MIN skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Hughes | 32.6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.08 | +0.29 |
| Blake Coleman | 14.3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0.61 | -0.23 |
| Jared Spurgeon | 24.9 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | +0.61 |
| Bobby Brink | 12.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.67 |
| Kirill Kaprizov | 23.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.03 |
| Max Shabanov | 16.6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.49 | +0.02 |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 21.3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.44 | +0.28 |
| Matt Boldy | 22.2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.41 | +0.22 |
| Marcus Foligno | 10.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.29 | -0.46 |
| Yakov Trenin | 12.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.28 | +0.32 |
| Michael McCarron | 10.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | -0.32 |
| Zach Bogosian | 19.5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.10 | -0.78 |
| Nico Sturm | 10.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | -0.23 |
| Ryan Hartman | 11.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | -1.21 |
| Jonas Brodin | 23.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.02 | -0.60 |
| David Spacek | 8.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.46 |
| Danila Yurov | 11.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.58 |
| Daemon Hunt | 10.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.30 |
TBL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Carlson | 16.8 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 0.53 | -0.04 |
| Nikita Kucherov | 20.9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.23 | -0.03 |
| Brandon Hagel | 22.9 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.53 | +0.65 |
| Anthony Cirelli | 19.4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.40 | +0.36 |
| Jake Guentzel | 21.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.29 | +0.21 |
| Brayden Point | 17.6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.23 | +0.14 |
| Erik Cernak | 19.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | +0.58 |
| Pontus Holmberg | 14.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.26 | +0.06 |
| Conor Geekie | 10.5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.25 | +0.03 |
| Jeffrey Viel | 8.4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.24 | +0.24 |
| Gage Goncalves | 16.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.14 | +0.08 |
| Max Crozier | 21.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | +0.05 |
| Zemgus Girgensons | 14.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | +0.06 |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous | 16.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | +0.30 |
| Ryan McDonagh | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.15 |
| Ilya Mikheyev | 15.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.01 | -0.03 |
| J.J. Moser | 13.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.01 |
| Victor Hedman | 12.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.44 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt | MIN | 50 | 3 | 3.50 | +0.50 |
| Dennis Hildeby | TBL | 47 | 2 | 3.02 | +1.02 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.