ON-ICE IQ · NSH 5 @ MTL 2

ON-ICE IQ ← ALL GAMES

Thu Oct 8 · 2026-27

NSH5

FINAL

2MTL

NSH 34%DESERVE TO WIN66% MTL

STOLE IT NSH stole it — only a 34% chance to win on the shots.

Expected goals flow

NSHMTL cumulative xG · dots = goals

	NSH	MTL
Goals	5	2
xG (all)	1.93	3.63
xG (5v5)	0.76	3.17
Shot attempts	45	66
Shots on goal	20	34

NSH skaters

Player	TOI	G	A	SOG	ixG	5v5 xG±
Adam Edstrom	10.3	2	0	2	0.60	-0.43
Steven Stamkos	20.8	0	2	2	0.27	-0.67
Roman Josi	27.8	0	2	2	0.15	-1.34
Alexander Kerfoot	14.8	1	1	1	0.11	-0.48
Matthew Wood	13.5	1	0	1	0.29	-0.50
Ryan O'Reilly	23.1	1	0	2	0.26	-1.30
Ross Colton	12.2	0	1	1	0.19	-0.61
Filip Forsberg	19.8	0	1	3	0.15	-0.48
Jack Drury	16.7	0	1	2	0.03	-0.57
Brady Skjei	21.5	0	1	0	0.02	-0.79
Adam Wilsby	20.7	0	1	0	0.00	-1.15
Reid Schaefer	9.6	0	0	2	0.12	-0.61
Nils Hoglander	12.8	0	0	1	0.07	-0.57
Mavrik Bourque	8.2	0	0	0	0.07	-0.38
Nick Perbix	20.8	0	0	1	0.06	-0.40
Jonathan Marchessault	18.1	0	0	0	0.05	-0.65
Nicolas Hague	18.7	0	0	0	0.04	-0.70
William Trudeau	4.7	0	0	0	0.00	-0.41

MTL skaters

Player	TOI	G	A	SOG	ixG	5v5 xG±
Alex Newhook	17.0	1	0	1	0.48	+0.59
Josh Anderson	14.4	0	1	4	0.41	+0.98
Nick Suzuki	21.0	1	0	1	0.34	+1.04
Cole Caufield	18.0	0	0	6	0.64	+1.07
Juraj Slafkovský	17.4	0	0	5	0.46	+0.96
Zachary Bolduc	15.8	0	0	2	0.35	+0.58
Chris Kreider	15.0	0	0	0	0.20	+0.38
Jake Evans	12.6	0	0	1	0.19	+0.26
Arber Xhekaj	12.0	0	0	2	0.14	+1.20
Noah Dobson	20.7	0	0	3	0.14	+1.15
Phillip Danault	18.6	0	0	2	0.13	+0.69
Lane Hutson	24.7	0	0	4	0.07	+1.50
Kirby Dach	7.7	0	0	0	0.06	+0.21
Alexandre Carrier	21.9	0	0	1	0.01	+0.15
Alexandre Texier	13.7	0	0	1	0.01	+0.45
Florian Xhekaj	6.4	0	0	1	0.01	+0.01
Mike Matheson	23.7	0	0	0	0.00	+0.04
Adam Engstrom	11.8	0	0	0	0.00	+0.77

Goalies

Goalie	Team	Unbl. shots	GA	xGA	GSAx
Juuse Saros	NSH	50	2	3.63	+1.63
Jacob Fowler	MTL	33	3	1.93	-1.07

DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.