Thu Oct 8 · 2026-27
DAL4FINAL
0BUF
DAL 42%DESERVE TO WIN58% BUF
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — DAL had a 42% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
DALBUF
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| DAL | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 0 |
| xG (all) | 2.10 | 2.75 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.34 | 2.46 |
| Shot attempts | 39 | 63 |
| Shots on goal | 18 | 26 |
DAL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikko Rantanen | 15.4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.12 | -0.02 |
| Wyatt Johnston | 16.0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.14 |
| Roope Hintz | 14.9 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0.78 | +0.19 |
| Jason Robertson | 15.2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.49 | +0.21 |
| Sam Steel | 15.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | -0.25 |
| Thomas Harley | 22.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.13 |
| Nils Lundkvist | 18.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.14 |
| Radek Faksa | 13.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | -0.23 |
| Colin Blackwell | 12.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.24 | -0.56 |
| Jamie Benn | 12.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | -0.01 |
| Tyler Myers | 17.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | -0.46 |
| Tyler Seguin | 15.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.60 |
| Miro Heiskanen | 19.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.46 |
| Esa Lindell | 21.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.90 |
| Lian Bichsel | 16.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.64 |
| Arttu Hyry | 14.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.52 |
| Justin Hryckowian | 14.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.61 |
| Oskar Bäck | 14.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.01 |
BUF skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Krebs | 16.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.44 | +0.76 |
| Josh Doan | 16.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.38 | +0.63 |
| Zach Benson | 18.3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.38 | +0.23 |
| Tage Thompson | 19.1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.31 | +0.76 |
| Justin Danforth | 11.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.24 | +0.21 |
| Josh Norris | 14.3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.18 | -0.12 |
| Noah Ostlund | 17.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.16 | +0.24 |
| Ryan McLeod | 16.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | +0.21 |
| Olen Zellweger | 17.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | +0.68 |
| Jiri Kulich | 11.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | +0.44 |
| Jack Quinn | 18.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | +0.11 |
| Rasmus Dahlin | 26.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.21 |
| Owen Power | 25.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | +1.33 |
| Zach Metsa | 13.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | -0.26 |
| Beck Malenstyn | 9.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | +0.21 |
| Mattias Samuelsson | 17.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | +0.28 |
| Konsta Helenius | 13.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.18 |
| Louis Crevier | 13.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.11 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger | DAL | 44 | 0 | 2.75 | +2.75 |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | BUF | 30 | 4 | 2.10 | -1.90 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.