Tue Oct 6 · 2026-27
MIN2FINAL OT
3BUF
MIN 35%DESERVE TO WIN65% BUF
DESERVED
BUF earned it — a 65% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
MINBUF
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| MIN | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 3 |
| xG (all) | 2.05 | 3.71 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.29 | 2.18 |
| Shot attempts | 48 | 64 |
| Shots on goal | 20 | 28 |
MIN skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Shabanov | 17.5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.28 | +0.10 |
| Quinn Hughes | 29.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | +0.22 |
| Danila Yurov | 14.3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.20 | +0.14 |
| Blake Coleman | 17.7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | -0.26 |
| Jared Spurgeon | 21.8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | +0.34 |
| Michael McCarron | 15.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.21 |
| Matt Boldy | 23.4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0.51 | +0.12 |
| Bobby Brink | 13.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.37 | -0.51 |
| Kirill Kaprizov | 25.0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.14 | -0.17 |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 20.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.12 | -0.08 |
| Daemon Hunt | 14.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | -0.47 |
| Jonas Brodin | 19.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.64 |
| Marcus Foligno | 13.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.59 |
| Olli Maatta | 19.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -1.01 |
| Zach Bogosian | 14.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Ryan Hartman | 13.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.67 |
| Yakov Trenin | 13.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.46 |
| Nick Foligno | 3.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.01 |
BUF skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | 20.4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1.25 | +0.31 |
| Owen Power | 29.1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.37 | +1.18 |
| Noah Ostlund | 20.6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.39 | +0.38 |
| Jiri Kulich | 13.9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.25 | +0.47 |
| Peyton Krebs | 15.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | +0.38 |
| Rasmus Dahlin | 29.2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | +0.47 |
| Zach Benson | 20.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.62 | +0.51 |
| Josh Norris | 16.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.31 | +0.21 |
| Jack Quinn | 21.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | +0.38 |
| Louis Crevier | 14.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | -0.06 |
| Ryan McLeod | 14.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | +0.06 |
| Mattias Samuelsson | 22.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | +0.32 |
| Josh Doan | 12.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | -0.12 |
| Beck Malenstyn | 8.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | -0.09 |
| Olen Zellweger | 14.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.08 |
| Konsta Helenius | 13.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.16 |
| Zach Metsa | 10.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| Justin Danforth | 8.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.02 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colten Ellis | BUF | 30 | 2 | 2.05 | +0.05 |
| Jesper Wallstedt | MIN | 46 | 3 | 3.71 | +0.71 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.