Tue Oct 6 · 2026-27
NYI2FINAL
5NYR
NYI 38%DESERVE TO WIN62% NYR
DESERVED
NYR earned it — a 62% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
NYINYR
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| NYI | NYR | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 5 |
| xG (all) | 2.24 | 3.53 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.43 | 1.66 |
| Shot attempts | 47 | 56 |
| Shots on goal | 19 | 24 |
NYI skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Schenn | 16.3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | +0.13 |
| Bo Horvat | 17.8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.60 | -0.31 |
| Calum Ritchie | 14.4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.22 | -0.02 |
| Matias Maccelli | 14.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | +0.14 |
| Ondrej Palat | 11.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.38 | +0.55 |
| Casey Cizikas | 13.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.19 | +0.57 |
| Kyle Palmieri | 16.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.17 | -0.53 |
| Victor Eklund | 15.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | +0.21 |
| Matthew Schaefer | 25.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | -0.62 |
| Tony DeAngelo | 18.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | -0.01 |
| Emil Heineman | 16.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 | -0.34 |
| Simon Holmstrom | 15.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | -0.44 |
| Alexander Romanov | 13.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | +0.43 |
| Logan Stanley | 19.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.10 |
| Ryan Pulock | 16.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.01 |
| Adam Pelech | 20.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.18 |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 14.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.47 |
| Anthony Duclair | 14.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.17 |
NYR skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Lafrenière | 18.9 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0.61 | -0.06 |
| Mika Zibanejad | 20.1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.34 | +0.21 |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 9.0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.23 | +0.14 |
| Vladislav Gavrikov | 24.8 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.09 | -0.26 |
| Will Cuylle | 17.6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1.04 | -0.29 |
| J.T. Miller | 16.5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.95 | +0.26 |
| Gabe Perreault | 13.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.24 | -0.04 |
| Adam Fox | 23.8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | -0.23 |
| Sean Durzi | 17.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.40 |
| Tye Kartye | 15.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | +0.41 |
| Alberts Smits | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.16 | +0.10 |
| Pavel Dorofeyev | 16.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.06 | +0.54 |
| Marcus Pettersson | 17.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.38 |
| Braden Schneider | 17.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.04 | +0.06 |
| Noah Laba | 14.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.23 |
| Eeli Tolvanen | 13.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Cole Beaudoin | 9.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.04 |
| Jaroslav Chmelar | 8.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.08 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov | NYI | 38 | 3 | 3.53 | +0.53 |
| Igor Shesterkin | NYR | 31 | 2 | 2.24 | +0.24 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.