Tue Oct 6 · 2026-27
UTA5FINAL
3NJD
UTA 56%DESERVE TO WIN44% NJD
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — UTA had a 56% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
UTANJD
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| UTA | NJD | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 5 | 3 |
| xG (all) | 4.14 | 3.11 |
| xG (5v5) | 2.17 | 1.84 |
| Shot attempts | 63 | 66 |
| Shots on goal | 31 | 33 |
UTA skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Schmaltz | 19.8 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.63 | +0.35 |
| Mikhail Sergachev | 15.1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.04 | +0.06 |
| Clayton Keller | 18.3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.45 | +0.02 |
| Dylan Guenther | 17.5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.86 | -0.17 |
| Logan Cooley | 18.9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.38 | +0.35 |
| Anders Lee | 10.8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.34 | +0.49 |
| Lawson Crouse | 15.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | -0.01 |
| Barrett Hayton | 12.6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.19 | +0.20 |
| Vincent Trocheck | 14.7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | +0.47 |
| MacKenzie Weegar | 20.3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.12 | +0.17 |
| Andrew Peeke | 17.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.30 | +0.05 |
| Michael Carcone | 10.8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.26 | -0.01 |
| Nate Schmidt | 23.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.19 | +0.29 |
| Kevin Stenlund | 15.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | -0.11 |
| Jack McBain | 13.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | -0.58 |
| Dmitri Simashev | 18.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.04 |
| John Marino | 19.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.10 |
| Daniil But | 10.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.01 |
NJD skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Evangelista | 18.3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.38 | +0.16 |
| Jack Hughes | 21.5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.53 | -0.25 |
| Timo Meier | 18.2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.42 | +0.15 |
| Jesper Bratt | 19.0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | -0.25 |
| Jesper Boqvist | 9.8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | -0.22 |
| Dougie Hamilton | 22.7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | -0.37 |
| Declan Chisholm | 15.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | +0.20 |
| Anthony Mantha | 12.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.36 | +0.05 |
| Amadeus Lombardi | 10.2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.35 | -0.27 |
| Luke Hughes | 26.2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.21 | +0.18 |
| Dawson Mercer | 11.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.17 | +0.01 |
| Arseny Gritsyuk | 11.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | -0.08 |
| Nico Hischier | 23.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | -0.19 |
| Brett Pesce | 20.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.20 |
| Cody Glass | 12.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | -0.08 |
| Evan Rodrigues | 15.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.01 |
| Jonas Siegenthaler | 14.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.70 |
| Brenden Dillon | 11.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.14 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen | NJD | 45 | 5 | 4.14 | -0.86 |
| Karel Vejmelka | UTA | 44 | 3 | 3.11 | +0.11 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.