ON-ICE IQ · CAR 6 @ MTL 4

ON-ICE IQ ← ALL GAMES

Tue Oct 6 · 2026-27

CAR6

FINAL

4MTL

CAR 58%DESERVE TO WIN42% MTL

TOSS-UP A toss-up on the shots — CAR had a 58% chance and got it.

Expected goals flow

CARMTL cumulative xG · dots = goals

	CAR	MTL
Goals	6	4
xG (all)	3.63	2.41
xG (5v5)	2.68	1.11
Shot attempts	68	38
Shots on goal	34	20

CAR skaters

Player	TOI	G	A	SOG	ixG	5v5 xG±
Sebastian Aho	19.9	1	2	3	0.23	+0.53
Taylor Hall	13.1	2	0	4	0.77	+0.61
Mark Jankowski	12.6	1	1	2	0.18	+0.36
Jaccob Slavin	21.3	0	2	1	0.14	+0.36
Eric Robinson	8.1	1	1	1	0.13	+0.00
Andrei Svechnikov	17.1	1	0	3	0.34	+0.51
Shayne Gostisbehere	17.6	0	1	1	0.27	+0.43
Jackson Blake	15.8	0	1	2	0.23	+0.61
Jalen Chatfield	22.0	0	1	3	0.23	+0.21
Nikolaj Ehlers	15.9	0	1	3	0.10	+0.02
Logan Stankoven	17.7	0	0	1	0.42	+1.01
Jordan Staal	16.8	0	0	1	0.39	+0.11
Jordan Martinook	16.9	0	0	3	0.24	+0.59
K'Andre Miller	22.1	0	0	3	0.19	+1.41
William Carrier	12.2	0	0	1	0.19	+0.59
Sean Walker	20.3	0	0	1	0.10	+0.22
Mike Reilly	10.4	0	0	1	0.04	+0.51
Jesperi Kotkaniemi	6.9	0	0	0	0.00	-0.21

MTL skaters

Player	TOI	G	A	SOG	ixG	5v5 xG±
Zachary Bolduc	14.1	2	0	3	0.47	+0.22
Chris Kreider	14.5	0	2	1	0.23	-0.32
Nick Suzuki	21.8	1	1	2	0.12	-0.34
Alexandre Texier	11.8	0	2	0	0.03	+0.45
Phillip Danault	13.8	0	1	3	0.59	+0.40
Juraj Slafkovský	19.7	1	0	2	0.28	-1.32
Lane Hutson	29.4	0	1	2	0.08	+0.32
Alex Newhook	16.6	0	1	0	0.05	-1.47
Alexandre Carrier	18.2	0	0	1	0.11	+0.48
Noah Dobson	24.3	0	0	2	0.11	-0.78
Mike Matheson	22.5	0	0	2	0.11	-0.88
Florian Xhekaj	8.8	0	0	1	0.10	-0.37
Josh Anderson	12.5	0	0	0	0.08	-0.11
Cole Caufield	21.8	0	0	1	0.05	-0.38
Jake Evans	14.3	0	0	0	0.00	-0.25
Kirby Dach	9.6	0	0	0	0.00	-0.80
Arber Xhekaj	9.2	0	0	0	0.00	-1.16
Jayden Struble	9.1	0	0	0	0.00	-1.58

Goalies

Goalie	Team	Unbl. shots	GA	xGA	GSAx
Jakub Dobes	MTL	47	5	3.63	-1.37
Brandon Bussi	CAR	29	4	2.41	-1.59

DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.