Tue Oct 6 · 2026-27
NSH4FINAL OT
5TOR
NSH 45%DESERVE TO WIN55% TOR
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — TOR had a 55% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
NSHTOR
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| NSH | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 5 |
| xG (all) | 3.91 | 4.33 |
| xG (5v5) | 2.83 | 2.25 |
| Shot attempts | 52 | 72 |
| Shots on goal | 25 | 37 |
NSH skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Stamkos | 19.7 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.89 | -0.16 |
| Nils Hoglander | 10.6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.77 | +0.65 |
| Filip Forsberg | 21.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.38 | +0.41 |
| Matthew Wood | 16.9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.29 | +0.27 |
| Adam Wilsby | 15.1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.21 | +0.18 |
| Ryan O'Reilly | 24.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | -0.14 |
| Roman Josi | 27.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | -0.45 |
| Mavrik Bourque | 19.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | +0.07 |
| Brady Skjei | 22.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.59 |
| Adam Edstrom | 13.6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.42 | +0.18 |
| William Trudeau | 10.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | +0.48 |
| Alexander Kerfoot | 18.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | +0.55 |
| Nick Perbix | 20.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | +0.33 |
| Ross Colton | 12.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | -0.03 |
| Jack Drury | 15.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | +0.15 |
| Jonathan Marchessault | 13.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | -0.21 |
| Nicolas Hague | 19.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | -0.16 |
| Jack Ahcan | 8.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.17 |
TOR skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 25.1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.61 | +0.24 |
| William Nylander | 22.8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.65 | +0.06 |
| Gavin McKenna | 14.8 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.34 | -0.69 |
| Jack Roslovic | 17.8 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.21 | +0.42 |
| John Tavares | 18.8 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0.72 | -0.60 |
| Kirill Marchenko | 21.6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.65 | +0.10 |
| Easton Cowan | 16.0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.25 | +0.02 |
| Morgan Rielly | 20.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.24 | +0.28 |
| Colton Sissons | 13.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.16 | -0.20 |
| Brandon Duhaime | 11.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | +0.14 |
| Nick Paul | 13.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | -0.92 |
| Darren Raddysh | 25.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | +0.27 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 17.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.06 | -0.21 |
| Troy Stecher | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | -0.21 |
| Jake McCabe | 20.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.69 |
| Teddy Blueger | 9.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.35 |
| Chris Tanev | 18.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.59 |
| Bo Groulx | 7.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.06 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz | TOR | 40 | 4 | 3.91 | -0.09 |
| Juuse Saros | NSH | 56 | 5 | 4.33 | -0.67 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.