Mon Oct 5 · 2026-27
PHI1FINAL
4TBL
PHI 31%DESERVE TO WIN69% TBL
DESERVED
TBL earned it — a 69% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
PHITBL
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| PHI | TBL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 4 |
| xG (all) | 1.94 | 4.10 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.11 | 3.03 |
| Shot attempts | 36 | 69 |
| Shots on goal | 14 | 36 |
PHI skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Foerster | 18.9 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.54 | -0.48 |
| Sean Couturier | 16.6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | -0.35 |
| Nick Seeler | 19.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.23 |
| Trevor Zegras | 18.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.27 | -0.53 |
| Travis Konecny | 19.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.23 | -0.99 |
| Matvei Michkov | 16.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | -0.96 |
| Christian Dvorak | 14.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | -0.85 |
| Cam York | 23.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | -0.73 |
| David Jiricek | 17.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | +0.15 |
| Noel Acciari | 13.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.11 | -0.33 |
| Carl Grundstrom | 10.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | -0.08 |
| Travis Sanheim | 25.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | -1.13 |
| Porter Martone | 14.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | -0.61 |
| Denver Barkey | 13.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.18 |
| Jamie Drysdale | 18.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -1.12 |
| Owen Tippett | 14.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.15 |
| Simon Benoit | 11.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.77 |
| Noah Cates | 11.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.20 |
TBL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontus Holmberg | 13.1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.60 | +0.43 |
| Ilya Mikheyev | 16.7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | +0.08 |
| Nikita Kucherov | 22.0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | +1.05 |
| Brandon Hagel | 20.2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1.04 | +0.79 |
| Brayden Point | 18.1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.50 | +0.30 |
| John Carlson | 17.9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | +0.19 |
| Zemgus Girgensons | 14.4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.32 |
| Jake Guentzel | 21.3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.69 | +0.74 |
| Gage Goncalves | 16.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.49 | +0.77 |
| J.J. Moser | 17.1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.31 | +0.65 |
| Jeffrey Viel | 8.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.21 | +0.20 |
| Conor Geekie | 11.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.18 | +0.25 |
| Max Crozier | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.16 | +0.86 |
| Anthony Cirelli | 16.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | +0.84 |
| Victor Hedman | 16.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | +0.40 |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous | 10.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | +0.28 |
| Erik Cernak | 22.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.87 |
| Ryan McDonagh | 15.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.57 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | TBL | 25 | 1 | 1.94 | +0.94 |
| Dan Vladar | PHI | 48 | 3 | 4.10 | +1.10 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.