Sun Oct 4 · 2026-27
VGK3FINAL
2VAN
VGK 72%DESERVE TO WIN28% VAN
DESERVED
VGK earned it — a 72% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
VGKVAN
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| VGK | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 2 |
| xG (all) | 4.46 | 1.55 |
| xG (5v5) | 2.81 | 0.81 |
| Shot attempts | 60 | 36 |
| Shots on goal | 28 | 20 |
VGK skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner | 21.9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.44 | +0.38 |
| Mark Stone | 19.8 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.39 | +0.09 |
| Victor Olofsson | 14.6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.38 | +1.17 |
| Marc Gatcomb | 9.1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.34 | +0.37 |
| Jack Eichel | 19.9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | +0.03 |
| Nic Dowd | 11.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | +0.43 |
| Braeden Bowman | 10.7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | +0.61 |
| Brayden McNabb | 19.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | +0.18 |
| Tomas Hertl | 16.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.84 | +0.75 |
| William Karlsson | 18.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.81 | +0.80 |
| Trevor Connelly | 12.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.42 | +0.74 |
| Brett Howden | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.32 | +0.52 |
| Noah Hanifin | 19.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | +0.97 |
| Shea Theodore | 22.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | +0.12 |
| Parker Wotherspoon | 17.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.91 |
| Rasmus Andersson | 17.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.96 |
| Jeremy Lauzon | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.87 |
| Ivan Barbashev | 13.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.13 |
VAN skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Cotter | 18.8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.16 | -1.65 |
| Elias Pettersson | 20.5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.12 | -0.01 |
| Linus Karlsson | 13.5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | +0.04 |
| Jonathan Lekkerimäki | 10.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | +0.07 |
| Filip Hronek | 26.4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.23 |
| Luke Schenn | 13.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.73 |
| Drew O'Connor | 16.5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.53 | -0.87 |
| Max Sasson | 16.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.30 | +0.22 |
| Arshdeep Bains | 14.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | +0.01 |
| Liam Ohgren | 14.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | -1.20 |
| Brendan Gallagher | 7.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | -0.77 |
| Elias Pettersson | 17.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | -0.53 |
| Marco Rossi | 18.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | +0.03 |
| Zeev Buium | 20.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | -0.39 |
| Tom Willander | 21.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -1.02 |
| Jamie Oleksiak | 17.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -1.10 |
| Brock Boeser | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -1.31 |
| Aatu Räty | 9.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.56 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill | VGK | 28 | 2 | 1.55 | -0.45 |
| Kevin Lankinen | VAN | 40 | 3 | 4.46 | +1.46 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.