Sat Oct 3 · 2026-27
STL1FINAL
6COL
STL 35%DESERVE TO WIN65% COL
DESERVED
COL earned it — a 65% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
STLCOL
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| STL | COL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 6 |
| xG (all) | 1.81 | 3.33 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.59 | 2.63 |
| Shot attempts | 55 | 66 |
| Shots on goal | 26 | 36 |
STL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalibor Dvorsky | 12.3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.28 | -0.24 |
| Theo Lindstein | 14.4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | -0.52 |
| Dylan Holloway | 15.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.23 | -0.10 |
| Mason McTavish | 14.9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.21 | -0.08 |
| Jonatan Berggren | 14.8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.20 | -0.58 |
| Jake Neighbours | 13.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | -0.38 |
| Colton Parayko | 20.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | -0.35 |
| Adam Jiricek | 19.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | -0.68 |
| Robert Thomas | 16.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.14 | +0.04 |
| Pavel Buchnevich | 15.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.14 | +0.03 |
| Connor McMichael | 15.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | +0.14 |
| Brandon Carlo | 17.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.04 | -0.02 |
| Philip Broberg | 20.3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.02 | -0.78 |
| Jimmy Snuggerud | 14.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.02 |
| Cam Fowler | 23.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.28 |
| Pius Suter | 16.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Dillon Dube | 13.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.62 |
| Zach Dean | 12.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.75 |
COL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | 18.3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.60 | +0.72 |
| Martin Necas | 19.4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0.53 | +0.67 |
| Nicolas Roy | 12.9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.34 | +0.16 |
| Artturi Lehkonen | 19.4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.23 | +0.13 |
| Parker Kelly | 15.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.67 |
| Josh Manson | 16.6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | +0.76 |
| Cale Makar | 20.1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.18 | +0.86 |
| Gabriel Landeskog | 14.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.12 |
| Nazem Kadri | 18.4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.36 | +0.12 |
| T.J. Hughes | 19.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.25 | -0.18 |
| Jaden Schwartz | 14.2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | -0.14 |
| Fedor Svechkov | 15.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.24 | +0.93 |
| Brent Burns | 13.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | +0.44 |
| Sam Malinski | 15.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | +0.07 |
| Noah Juulsen | 10.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | -0.31 |
| Brock Nelson | 16.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | -0.09 |
| Devon Toews | 18.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | +0.59 |
| Brett Kulak | 16.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.33 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington | STL | 49 | 6 | 3.33 | -2.67 |
| Mackenzie Blackwood | COL | 38 | 1 | 1.81 | +0.81 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.