Sat Oct 3 · 2026-27
UTA4FINAL
1CBJ
UTA 52%DESERVE TO WIN48% CBJ
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — UTA had a 52% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
UTACBJ
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| UTA | CBJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 1 |
| xG (all) | 2.75 | 2.30 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.45 | 2.03 |
| Shot attempts | 72 | 51 |
| Shots on goal | 31 | 18 |
UTA skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Guenther | 16.9 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0.58 | +0.25 |
| Nick Schmaltz | 17.6 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0.78 | -0.27 |
| Clayton Keller | 17.1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.39 | -0.36 |
| Logan Cooley | 16.8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | +0.13 |
| Mikhail Sergachev | 22.0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.06 | -0.11 |
| John Marino | 20.4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.29 |
| Michael Carcone | 13.1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.28 | -0.05 |
| Anders Lee | 13.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.24 | +0.26 |
| Dmitri Simashev | 16.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.11 | -0.57 |
| MacKenzie Weegar | 20.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | -0.13 |
| Andrew Peeke | 15.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | +0.06 |
| Lawson Crouse | 13.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.02 | -0.48 |
| Kevin Stenlund | 14.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.02 | +0.03 |
| Daniil But | 11.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | +0.04 |
| Nate Schmidt | 21.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.12 |
| Vincent Trocheck | 17.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.46 |
| Jack McBain | 14.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.43 |
| Barrett Hayton | 13.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.41 |
CBJ skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent Johnson | 17.2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.41 | +0.24 |
| Matthew Knies | 17.7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | +0.35 |
| Danton Heinen | 11.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.30 | +0.05 |
| Cole Sillinger | 13.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.27 | +0.15 |
| Mathieu Olivier | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.27 | +0.24 |
| Adam Fantilli | 20.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | +0.23 |
| Charlie Coyle | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.17 | +0.09 |
| Sean Monahan | 16.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | +0.21 |
| Dmitri Voronkov | 12.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | +0.12 |
| Denton Mateychuk | 28.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | +0.54 |
| Zach Werenski | 31.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | +0.77 |
| Ryan Lomberg | 9.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | +0.14 |
| Valeri Nichushkin | 16.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | -0.08 |
| Conor Garland | 12.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.01 |
| Carson Soucy | 16.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | +0.09 |
| Erik Gudbranson | 16.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.14 |
| Emil Andrae | 13.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.47 |
| Jake Christiansen | 9.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.38 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Cossa | UTA | 34 | 1 | 2.30 | +1.30 |
| Jet Greaves | CBJ | 48 | 4 | 2.75 | -1.25 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.