Sat Oct 3 · 2026-27
CAR3FINAL OT
2PHI
CAR 64%DESERVE TO WIN36% PHI
DESERVED
CAR earned it — a 64% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
CARPHI
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| CAR | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 2 |
| xG (all) | 4.73 | 2.63 |
| xG (5v5) | 3.53 | 1.73 |
| Shot attempts | 79 | 43 |
| Shots on goal | 40 | 18 |
CAR skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho | 20.5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0.75 | +1.09 |
| Andrei Svechnikov | 17.8 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1.00 | +1.04 |
| William Carrier | 12.8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.63 | +1.57 |
| Shayne Gostisbehere | 15.7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.30 | -0.18 |
| Jackson Blake | 18.7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.26 | +0.34 |
| Nikolaj Ehlers | 13.6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.00 |
| Logan Stankoven | 17.2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.64 | +0.27 |
| Jordan Martinook | 15.3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.26 | +0.52 |
| Taylor Hall | 14.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.20 | +0.38 |
| Sean Walker | 24.2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.17 | +0.10 |
| Eric Robinson | 11.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.14 | -0.11 |
| Mark Jankowski | 12.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | +0.48 |
| K'Andre Miller | 23.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | +0.28 |
| Jalen Chatfield | 22.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | +1.68 |
| Jaccob Slavin | 24.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | +1.60 |
| Jordan Staal | 16.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | -0.04 |
| Mike Reilly | 10.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | -0.06 |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 11.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.05 |
PHI skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Zegras | 22.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | -1.38 |
| Christian Dvorak | 14.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.29 | -0.07 |
| Travis Konecny | 16.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.26 | -0.37 |
| Owen Tippett | 17.8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.25 | -0.70 |
| Matvei Michkov | 16.1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.20 | -0.91 |
| Tyson Foerster | 18.7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.47 | -0.01 |
| Alex Bump | 13.4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.46 | -0.30 |
| Porter Martone | 11.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | +0.24 |
| Noel Acciari | 15.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | -0.29 |
| Cam York | 22.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | -1.08 |
| Carl Grundstrom | 13.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | -1.27 |
| David Jiricek | 13.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.16 |
| Travis Sanheim | 27.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.40 |
| Noah Cates | 9.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.08 |
| Jamie Drysdale | 24.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -1.23 |
| Nick Seeler | 18.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.61 |
| Sean Couturier | 16.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.21 |
| Rasmus Ristolainen | 14.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.18 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll | PHI | 62 | 3 | 4.73 | +1.73 |
| Pyotr Kochetkov | CAR | 29 | 2 | 2.63 | +0.63 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.