Sat Oct 3 · 2026-27
WSH1FINAL
3TBL
WSH 41%DESERVE TO WIN59% TBL
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — TBL had a 59% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
WSHTBL
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| WSH | TBL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 3 |
| xG (all) | 2.40 | 3.27 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.17 | 2.32 |
| Shot attempts | 61 | 63 |
| Shots on goal | 21 | 30 |
WSH skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Chychrun | 27.2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.29 | -0.29 |
| Boone Jenner | 14.9 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.13 | +0.09 |
| Justin Sourdif | 12.4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | -0.26 |
| Alex Tuch | 17.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.48 | -0.32 |
| Dylan Strome | 18.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.37 | -0.81 |
| Tom Wilson | 17.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.25 | -0.40 |
| Ryan Leonard | 14.2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.18 | -0.50 |
| Matt Roy | 14.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.17 | -0.61 |
| Anthony Beauvillier | 11.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | +0.02 |
| Timothy Liljegren | 17.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | -0.06 |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois | 18.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | -0.40 |
| Cole Hutson | 21.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | -0.29 |
| Jordan Kyrou | 14.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | -0.04 |
| Alex Ovechkin | 13.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | -0.80 |
| Vincent Desharnais | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.53 |
| Martin Fehérváry | 18.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.52 |
| Aliaksei Protas | 15.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.00 |
| Ilya Protas | 9.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.03 |
TBL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 18.3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.35 | +0.17 |
| Brandon Hagel | 22.1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0.93 | +0.33 |
| Nikita Kucherov | 22.8 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.38 | +0.71 |
| Conor Geekie | 9.2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.22 | +0.25 |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous | 13.8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.14 | +0.15 |
| John Carlson | 20.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | +0.45 |
| Brayden Point | 20.5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.48 | +0.25 |
| Ilya Mikheyev | 13.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.30 | +0.33 |
| Zemgus Girgensons | 14.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | +0.29 |
| Erik Cernak | 20.6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.15 | +0.46 |
| J.J. Moser | 19.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.15 | +0.31 |
| Pontus Holmberg | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.12 | +0.54 |
| Emil Lilleberg | 10.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | +0.46 |
| Anthony Cirelli | 17.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | +0.41 |
| Jeffrey Viel | 7.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | +0.06 |
| Victor Hedman | 13.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | +0.25 |
| Ryan McDonagh | 15.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.23 |
| Gage Goncalves | 15.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.13 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | TBL | 41 | 1 | 2.40 | +1.40 |
| Charlie Lindgren | WSH | 46 | 2 | 3.27 | +1.27 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.