Sat Oct 3 · 2026-27
CHI3FINAL
4BUF
CHI 34%DESERVE TO WIN66% BUF
DESERVED
BUF earned it — a 66% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
CHIBUF
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| CHI | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 4 |
| xG (all) | 2.25 | 4.09 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.70 | 3.40 |
| Shot attempts | 38 | 64 |
| Shots on goal | 15 | 28 |
CHI skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Frondell | 16.1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | -0.35 |
| Alex Vlasic | 22.6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.12 |
| Teuvo Teravainen | 14.4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.24 | -0.31 |
| Ryan Donato | 9.4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | -0.59 |
| Oliver Moore | 9.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | -0.58 |
| Tyler Bertuzzi | 16.3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | -0.52 |
| Nick Lardis | 7.7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | -0.68 |
| Frank Nazar | 20.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.44 | -0.27 |
| Patrick Kane | 19.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.28 | -0.23 |
| Jordan Greenway | 15.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.23 | -0.48 |
| Ryan Greene | 15.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13 | -0.38 |
| Artyom Levshunov | 24.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | -0.38 |
| Wyatt Kaiser | 23.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.11 | -0.41 |
| Ethan Del Mastro | 15.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.06 | -1.15 |
| Kevin Korchinski | 11.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | -1.17 |
| Roman Kantserov | 18.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.04 | -0.38 |
| Ian Cole | 20.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | -0.17 |
| Cole Smith | 15.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.33 |
BUF skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | 19.7 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.45 | +0.45 |
| Jack Quinn | 19.1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.77 | +0.76 |
| Jiri Kulich | 13.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.47 | +0.12 |
| Peyton Krebs | 13.7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.27 | +0.95 |
| Rasmus Dahlin | 25.4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.27 | +0.60 |
| Josh Norris | 16.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.19 | +0.40 |
| Owen Power | 25.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | +0.86 |
| Mattias Samuelsson | 24.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.07 |
| Louis Crevier | 17.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.42 |
| Zach Metsa | 8.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.42 |
| Konsta Helenius | 14.7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.48 | +0.75 |
| Ryan McLeod | 12.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.34 | +0.46 |
| Noah Ostlund | 17.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.29 | +0.53 |
| Zach Benson | 19.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | +0.71 |
| Olen Zellweger | 15.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | +1.05 |
| Sam Carrick | 7.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | -0.26 |
| Josh Doan | 18.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | +0.45 |
| Beck Malenstyn | 8.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.26 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | BUF | 30 | 3 | 2.25 | -0.75 |
| Spencer Knight | CHI | 51 | 4 | 4.09 | +0.09 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.