Thu Oct 1 · 2026-27
FLA3FINAL OT
4SJS
FLA 52%DESERVE TO WIN48% SJS
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — SJS had a 48% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
FLASJS
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| FLA | SJS | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 4 |
| xG (all) | 3.94 | 3.36 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.74 | 1.06 |
| Shot attempts | 70 | 61 |
| Shots on goal | 26 | 32 |
FLA skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eetu Luostarinen | 16.5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.68 | +0.56 |
| Matthew Tkachuk | 22.8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.53 | +0.05 |
| Anton Lundell | 20.7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.50 | +0.54 |
| Lars Eller | 14.9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.25 | +0.16 |
| Sam Bennett | 20.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.24 | +0.07 |
| Aaron Ekblad | 21.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | +0.21 |
| Dmitry Kulikov | 17.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.30 |
| Sam Reinhart | 23.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.51 | -0.01 |
| Sandis Vilmanis | 12.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.42 | +0.47 |
| Seth Jones | 27.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.27 | -0.13 |
| Brady Tkachuk | 19.6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | -0.05 |
| Carter Verhaeghe | 17.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.11 | +0.10 |
| Niko Mikkola | 22.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | -0.25 |
| Radko Gudas | 13.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.61 |
| Aleksander Barkov | 9.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.09 |
| Uvis Balinskis | 12.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.63 |
| Garnet Hathaway | 6.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.12 |
| Bokondji Imama | 5.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.12 |
SJS skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Smith | 20.1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.00 | +0.16 |
| Macklin Celebrini | 22.9 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0.44 | +0.17 |
| Luca Cagnoni | 21.3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.42 | -0.68 |
| Mason Marchment | 12.7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.21 | +0.27 |
| Alexander Wennberg | 21.7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.42 | -0.07 |
| Michael Misa | 11.6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.24 | -0.67 |
| Nolan Allan | 20.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | -0.13 |
| Kiefer Sherwood | 14.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | -0.09 |
| Ivar Stenberg | 13.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | -0.10 |
| Collin Graf | 16.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.07 | -0.10 |
| Igor Chernyshov | 12.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | -0.60 |
| Jacob Trouba | 22.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | -0.18 |
| Tyler Toffoli | 9.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | -0.66 |
| Michael Kesselring | 19.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | +0.22 |
| Darnell Nurse | 17.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | +0.14 |
| Dmitry Orlov | 17.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.73 |
| Barclay Goodrow | 14.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.26 |
| Zack Ostapchuk | 11.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.10 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akira Schmid | FLA | 48 | 4 | 3.36 | -0.64 |
| Yaroslav Askarov | SJS | 49 | 3 | 3.94 | +0.94 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.