Thu Oct 1 · 2026-27
MIN3FINAL
1NSH
MIN 61%DESERVE TO WIN39% NSH
DESERVED
MIN earned it — a 61% chance to win on the shots.
Expected goals flow
MINNSH
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| MIN | NSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 1 |
| xG (all) | 3.26 | 1.75 |
| xG (5v5) | 2.23 | 1.07 |
| Shot attempts | 62 | 47 |
| Shots on goal | 30 | 20 |
MIN skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov | 20.9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.68 | +0.59 |
| Quinn Hughes | 27.5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.34 | +0.43 |
| Blake Coleman | 13.7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.29 | +0.21 |
| Michael McCarron | 13.4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.19 | +0.41 |
| Nick Foligno | 12.5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.18 | +0.49 |
| Bobby Brink | 11.6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | -0.04 |
| Danila Yurov | 12.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | -0.00 |
| Jared Spurgeon | 19.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.35 |
| Olli Maatta | 21.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.55 |
| Matt Boldy | 21.5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.48 | +0.64 |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 20.3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.30 | +0.83 |
| Marcus Foligno | 12.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.27 | +0.50 |
| Max Shabanov | 15.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.15 | +0.07 |
| Ryan Hartman | 12.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.12 | -0.09 |
| Yakov Trenin | 12.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | -0.14 |
| Zach Bogosian | 14.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.37 |
| Jonas Brodin | 20.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.34 |
| Daemon Hunt | 10.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.27 |
NSH skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Stamkos | 18.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | -0.39 |
| Filip Forsberg | 19.5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.18 | -0.52 |
| Roman Josi | 24.9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.14 | -0.63 |
| Mavrik Bourque | 17.4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.30 | -0.36 |
| Ryan O'Reilly | 21.5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.23 | -0.27 |
| Adam Edstrom | 10.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | -0.24 |
| Nick Perbix | 18.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.12 | -0.29 |
| Jonathan Marchessault | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.11 | -0.42 |
| Matthew Wood | 17.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 | -0.24 |
| Reid Schaefer | 11.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | -0.55 |
| Nils Hoglander | 10.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | -0.09 |
| Ryan Ufko | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.20 |
| Alexander Kerfoot | 13.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | -0.10 |
| Nicolas Hague | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.42 |
| Ross Colton | 12.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.01 | -0.01 |
| Brady Skjei | 20.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.50 |
| Adam Wilsby | 16.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Jack Drury | 12.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.26 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros | NSH | 49 | 3 | 3.26 | +0.26 |
| Jesper Wallstedt | MIN | 35 | 1 | 1.75 | +0.75 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.