Thu Oct 1 · 2026-27
BUF3FINAL
6CBJ
BUF 54%DESERVE TO WIN46% CBJ
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — CBJ had a 46% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
BUFCBJ
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| BUF | CBJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 6 |
| xG (all) | 2.90 | 2.18 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.72 | 1.44 |
| Shot attempts | 56 | 39 |
| Shots on goal | 26 | 23 |
BUF skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Ostlund | 16.7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.35 | +0.36 |
| Owen Power | 25.4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.56 |
| Jack Quinn | 20.8 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.56 | +0.38 |
| Zach Benson | 18.6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.38 | +0.38 |
| Konsta Helenius | 15.2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | -0.33 |
| Mattias Samuelsson | 18.4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | -0.27 |
| Ryan McLeod | 16.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.36 |
| Tage Thompson | 19.8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.55 | +0.47 |
| Josh Doan | 19.1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.33 | +0.35 |
| Rasmus Dahlin | 26.0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | -0.22 |
| Josh Norris | 16.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | +0.42 |
| Jiri Kulich | 8.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | -0.10 |
| Peyton Krebs | 15.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.06 | -0.42 |
| Louis Crevier | 16.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | +0.48 |
| Beck Malenstyn | 8.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.12 |
| Sam Carrick | 7.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.12 |
| Matt Grzelcyk | 14.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.07 |
| Zach Metsa | 12.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.01 |
CBJ skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Knies | 16.1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0.58 | -0.03 |
| Charlie Coyle | 19.1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.00 |
| Zach Werenski | 28.8 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.15 | -0.21 |
| Mathieu Olivier | 14.5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.49 | -0.05 |
| Cole Sillinger | 15.3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.36 | -0.02 |
| Sean Monahan | 15.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.19 | -0.08 |
| Adam Fantilli | 17.5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | -0.11 |
| Denton Mateychuk | 27.5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | -0.09 |
| Kent Johnson | 14.9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.16 |
| Valeri Nichushkin | 15.8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.22 |
| Emil Andrae | 15.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.01 |
| Dmitri Voronkov | 10.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.03 |
| Danton Heinen | 12.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.27 | -0.08 |
| Conor Garland | 12.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | +0.05 |
| Carson Soucy | 20.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | -0.03 |
| Jake Christiansen | 7.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | -0.04 |
| Ryan Lomberg | 9.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | -0.11 |
| Erik Gudbranson | 17.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | -0.20 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | BUF | 30 | 5 | 2.18 | -2.82 |
| Jet Greaves | CBJ | 40 | 3 | 2.90 | -0.10 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.