Thu Oct 1 · 2026-27
TBL1FINAL
5NYR
TBL 46%DESERVE TO WIN54% NYR
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — NYR had a 54% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
TBLNYR
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| TBL | NYR | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 5 |
| xG (all) | 2.62 | 2.91 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.71 | 2.21 |
| Shot attempts | 64 | 52 |
| Shots on goal | 25 | 25 |
TBL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov | 24.1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.36 | +0.29 |
| Brayden Point | 22.6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | -0.03 |
| Ilya Mikheyev | 10.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.19 | +0.06 |
| Pontus Holmberg | 15.0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.29 | -0.61 |
| Jake Guentzel | 24.0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.27 | -0.13 |
| Brandon Hagel | 23.7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.26 | +0.25 |
| Anthony Cirelli | 19.9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.19 | +0.25 |
| J.J. Moser | 14.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.16 | -0.42 |
| John Carlson | 23.7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.15 | -0.16 |
| Jansen Harkins | 10.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | -0.43 |
| Erik Cernak | 16.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | -0.04 |
| Gage Goncalves | 12.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | -0.31 |
| Jeffrey Viel | 8.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | -0.30 |
| Victor Hedman | 17.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | -0.42 |
| Ryan McDonagh | 15.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.24 |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous | 19.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.18 |
| Conor Geekie | 12.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.38 |
| Zemgus Girgensons | 7.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.12 |
NYR skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Dorofeyev | 13.7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0.65 | +0.04 |
| Mika Zibanejad | 18.9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.55 | +0.36 |
| Adam Fox | 19.1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.40 | +0.41 |
| Gabe Perreault | 10.8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | +0.28 |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 12.4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | +0.17 |
| Eeli Tolvanen | 14.3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | +0.17 |
| Noah Laba | 16.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.04 |
| J.T. Miller | 15.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.44 | +0.18 |
| Will Cuylle | 14.2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.44 | +0.15 |
| Marcus Pettersson | 21.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.38 | +0.23 |
| Alexis Lafrenière | 15.2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.34 | +0.38 |
| Jaroslav Chmelar | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | -0.10 |
| Joseph Veleno | 14.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | -0.08 |
| Braden Schneider | 18.8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.03 | -0.07 |
| Vladislav Gavrikov | 23.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.28 |
| Sean Durzi | 20.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.05 |
| Tye Kartye | 14.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.11 |
| Alberts Smits | 14.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.08 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | TBL | 32 | 4 | 2.91 | -1.09 |
| Igor Shesterkin | NYR | 40 | 1 | 2.62 | +1.62 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.