Tue Sep 29 · 2026-27
MTL3FINAL
2TOR
MTL 46%DESERVE TO WIN54% TOR
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — MTL had a 46% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
MTLTOR
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| MTL | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 2 |
| xG (all) | 2.38 | 2.69 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.73 | 1.88 |
| Shot attempts | 55 | 50 |
| Shots on goal | 24 | 28 |
MTL skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Anderson | 12.9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.67 | +0.88 |
| Alexandre Carrier | 21.9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.36 | -0.07 |
| Zachary Bolduc | 11.1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.28 | +0.40 |
| Mike Matheson | 25.1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | +0.42 |
| Kirby Dach | 11.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | +0.04 |
| Juraj Slafkovský | 17.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.53 | -0.09 |
| Noah Dobson | 21.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.28 | -0.21 |
| Cole Caufield | 15.9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.24 | -0.57 |
| Jake Evans | 14.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.23 | +0.44 |
| Ivan Demidov | 15.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | -0.07 |
| Alex Newhook | 16.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | +0.07 |
| Chris Kreider | 14.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | -0.52 |
| Lane Hutson | 24.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.58 |
| Alexandre Texier | 12.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.42 |
| Nick Suzuki | 18.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.01 | -0.68 |
| Phillip Danault | 15.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.05 |
| Arber Xhekaj | 12.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.01 |
| Jayden Struble | 11.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.14 |
TOR skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Nylander | 18.9 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0.48 | -0.58 |
| John Tavares | 16.6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.83 | +0.01 |
| Kirill Marchenko | 20.1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.51 | +0.75 |
| Easton Cowan | 16.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | +0.38 |
| Morgan Rielly | 21.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.34 |
| Auston Matthews | 22.6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.23 | +0.27 |
| Darren Raddysh | 23.8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.18 | -0.21 |
| Gavin McKenna | 15.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | -0.51 |
| Jack Roslovic | 18.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | +0.53 |
| Colton Sissons | 15.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.04 | +0.18 |
| Chris Tanev | 18.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | +0.31 |
| Jake McCabe | 11.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | +0.32 |
| Teddy Blueger | 9.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.00 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 18.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.21 |
| Troy Stecher | 19.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| Nick Paul | 15.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.42 |
| Brandon Duhaime | 9.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.08 |
| Zack MacEwen | 5.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.10 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | TOR | 36 | 3 | 2.38 | -0.62 |
| Jakub Dobes | MTL | 38 | 2 | 2.69 | +0.69 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.