Tue Sep 29 · 2026-27
FLA1FINAL OT
0CAR
FLA 45%DESERVE TO WIN55% CAR
TOSS-UP
A toss-up on the shots — FLA had a 45% chance and got it.
Expected goals flow
FLACAR
cumulative xG · dots = goals
| FLA | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 0 |
| xG (all) | 2.19 | 2.52 |
| xG (5v5) | 1.23 | 0.40 |
| Shot attempts | 51 | 37 |
| Shots on goal | 20 | 15 |
FLA skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Verhaeghe | 19.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | +0.39 |
| Gustav Forsling | 22.7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | -0.24 |
| Eetu Luostarinen | 14.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.34 | +0.31 |
| Anton Lundell | 19.0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.31 | +0.45 |
| Matthew Tkachuk | 19.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.25 | +0.14 |
| Sam Reinhart | 20.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.24 | +0.36 |
| Brady Tkachuk | 16.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.22 | +0.35 |
| Niko Mikkola | 21.5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.19 | +0.55 |
| Seth Jones | 29.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | +0.58 |
| Aleksander Barkov | 20.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | +0.25 |
| Sam Bennett | 19.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | +0.23 |
| Aaron Ekblad | 20.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | +0.08 |
| Sandis Vilmanis | 11.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | +0.22 |
| Lars Eller | 11.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | -0.10 |
| Dmitry Kulikov | 11.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.38 |
| Radko Gudas | 10.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.31 |
| Garnet Hathaway | 9.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.13 |
| Bokondji Imama | 6.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.01 |
CAR skaters
| Player | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | 5v5 xG± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Svechnikov | 16.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.71 | -0.04 |
| Jackson Blake | 21.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.59 | -0.38 |
| Sebastian Aho | 20.9 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.39 | -0.04 |
| Nikolaj Ehlers | 19.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.34 | -0.31 |
| Shayne Gostisbehere | 19.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| Taylor Hall | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | -0.32 |
| Charles Alexis Legault | 12.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | -0.64 |
| Mark Jankowski | 13.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | -0.16 |
| Jaccob Slavin | 22.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | -0.34 |
| Eric Robinson | 13.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | -0.21 |
| Sean Walker | 19.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | +0.08 |
| K'Andre Miller | 25.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.06 |
| Logan Stankoven | 19.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.71 |
| Jalen Chatfield | 19.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.22 |
| Jordan Staal | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.09 |
| Jordan Martinook | 13.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.07 |
| William Carrier | 6.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.16 |
| Nicolas Deslauriers | 5.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.01 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Team | Unbl. shots | GA | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom | FLA | 24 | 0 | 2.52 | +2.52 |
| Brandon Bussi | CAR | 31 | 1 | 2.19 | +1.19 |
DtW replays every unblocked, non-empty-net shot by its xG (shootout excluded; a tie = coin
flip), calibrated against real results — so it reads as "teams with these shots win X%". ixG = expected goals from a player's own shots. 5v5 xG± = 5v5 xG for minus
against while he was on the ice. GSAx = expected goals against minus goals allowed.